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I can see Minnesota not being tier 1 but being in the same tier as the Lakers and the Kings who both went through the playin (and out of it, for Sacramento) while Minnesota went to the WCF is a bit surprising
It looks like the link to your player forecast methodology is broken. Not working for me, at the very last.
Thanks for the catch. I updated the link on the article but you can also find it here:
https://statsurge.substack.com/i/149942378/methodology
Why use to 13 VORP and top 5 VORP but not the top 8 or top 10 VORP when that’s the realistic range of guys that actually play?
I really like this. I would say I’m much higher on the 76ers, Grizz, and Knicks, all of which I would put on higher tiers. I’m much lower on the Kings, Lakers, and Warriors. In terms of tiering, I’d probably swap the 76ers + Knicks with the Kings + Lakers. I’d also swap the Warriors + Grizz.
Personally, I think a healthy 76ers could be in tier 1, but I believe, because VORP is a cumulative stat, it does tend to do a good job at highlighting who has been/hasn’t been injured lately.
Great points. A nice next step or potential adjustment would be to go through players who have faced one-time injuries and change the forecasts accordingly. Not all injuries are the same as far as their recurring nature, and factoring this in would be great.
I’ve already done a little of this for suspensions (Ja Morant and Miles Bridges) but more would be a good next step.
For sure. Also, in the above example, I look at Milwaukee and Philly and don’t think they should be on separate tiers. However, Giannis (7.2) is going to have a much higher VORP than Embiid (4.5) because Embiid was injured in the regular season and Giannis was injured in the post-season. However, if you look at their playoff VORP from last year, Embiid’s was actually higher because of when the injuries occurred.
Giannis, Middleton, and Dame are a healthier trio than Embiid, George, and Maxey, but, lately, how much more?
What I think would be interesting is to calculate what would have been a player’s VORP over the course of the past 3 years, (based on their BPM), had they played what should be average minutes for them and compare it to what their actual VORP was. I feel like that could give you insight into who is actualizing their value and how predictive their VORP is based on how available they are.
Yeah, that’d be interesting to look at. Your point about playoff injuries is a great one too. Thanks for the input and I’ll give these some thought when I update the model!
I am biased but I think your model heavily underrates the Grizzlies. You could point to Ja’s injury/suspension history (I guess?, even though he’s had no major injuries) but then you have the Pelicans at 11 with Zion’s history? Make it make sense
Yes, Ja’s shoulder injury hurts him a lot here. I did manually adjust for his suspension (and Miles Bridges’ 10-game suspension) which puts him at about the same level as Zion. The biggest difference is that VORP likes the fourth and fifth guys on the Pelicans compared to the Grizzlies. I think some of it may be differences in VORP, and some of it also may be that when Ja comes back, he’ll likely make his teammates better too which the model doesn’t currently account for.
This is actually more coming from the next 3 guys rather than the stars. After a manual adjustment for Ja’s suspension (assuming it’s a one-off thing) the model has him pretty similar to Zion. The difference is that in total it likes Dejounte Murray / McCollum / Trey Murphy / Brandon Ingram better than Desmond Bane / Jaren Jackson / Santi Almada / John Konchar.
It’s not perfect, but likely the difference is coming from those last couple starters and first guys off the bench. I think Luke Kennard may be more valuable than his VORP shows.
The only other player I manually adjusted for suspension was Miles Bridges and he only missed 10 games so was a much smaller one. Let me know if there’s anyone else I should also consider adjusting due to suspension?
Seems to me like it’s a good start, I appreciate the comments acknowledging the weakness of VORP and how it influences your model.
Clarity is good. You should post this on r/nbadiscussion maybe but more of an analysis post about what you used in your model and what it comes up if rules permit.