I really like this. I would say I’m much higher on the 76ers, Grizz, and Knicks, all of which I would put on higher tiers. I’m much lower on the Kings, Lakers, and Warriors. In terms of tiering, I’d probably swap the 76ers + Knicks with the Kings + Lakers. I’d also swap the Warriors + Grizz.
Personally, I think a healthy 76ers could be in tier 1, but I believe, because VORP is a cumulative stat, it does tend to do a good job at highlighting who has been/hasn’t been injured lately.
Great points. A nice next step or potential adjustment would be to go through players who have faced one-time injuries and change the forecasts accordingly. Not all injuries are the same as far as their recurring nature, and factoring this in would be great.
I’ve already done a little of this for suspensions (Ja Morant and Miles Bridges) but more would be a good next step.
For sure. Also, in the above example, I look at Milwaukee and Philly and don’t think they should be on separate tiers. However, Giannis (7.2) is going to have a much higher VORP than Embiid (4.5) because Embiid was injured in the regular season and Giannis was injured in the post-season. However, if you look at their playoff VORP from last year, Embiid’s was actually higher because of when the injuries occurred.
Giannis, Middleton, and Dame are a healthier trio than Embiid, George, and Maxey, but, lately, how much more?
What I think would be interesting is to calculate what would have been a player’s VORP over the course of the past 3 years, (based on their BPM), had they played what should be average minutes for them and compare it to what their actual VORP was. I feel like that could give you insight into who is actualizing their value and how predictive their VORP is based on how available they are.
Yeah, that’d be interesting to look at. Your point about playoff injuries is a great one too. Thanks for the input and I’ll give these some thought when I update the model!
I really like this. I would say I’m much higher on the 76ers, Grizz, and Knicks, all of which I would put on higher tiers. I’m much lower on the Kings, Lakers, and Warriors. In terms of tiering, I’d probably swap the 76ers + Knicks with the Kings + Lakers. I’d also swap the Warriors + Grizz.
Personally, I think a healthy 76ers could be in tier 1, but I believe, because VORP is a cumulative stat, it does tend to do a good job at highlighting who has been/hasn’t been injured lately.
Great points. A nice next step or potential adjustment would be to go through players who have faced one-time injuries and change the forecasts accordingly. Not all injuries are the same as far as their recurring nature, and factoring this in would be great.
I’ve already done a little of this for suspensions (Ja Morant and Miles Bridges) but more would be a good next step.
For sure. Also, in the above example, I look at Milwaukee and Philly and don’t think they should be on separate tiers. However, Giannis (7.2) is going to have a much higher VORP than Embiid (4.5) because Embiid was injured in the regular season and Giannis was injured in the post-season. However, if you look at their playoff VORP from last year, Embiid’s was actually higher because of when the injuries occurred.
Giannis, Middleton, and Dame are a healthier trio than Embiid, George, and Maxey, but, lately, how much more?
What I think would be interesting is to calculate what would have been a player’s VORP over the course of the past 3 years, (based on their BPM), had they played what should be average minutes for them and compare it to what their actual VORP was. I feel like that could give you insight into who is actualizing their value and how predictive their VORP is based on how available they are.
Yeah, that’d be interesting to look at. Your point about playoff injuries is a great one too. Thanks for the input and I’ll give these some thought when I update the model!