Yeah, that’d be interesting to look at. Your point about playoff injuries is a great one too. Thanks for the input and I’ll give these some thought when I update the model!

Thanks for the catch. I updated the link on the article but you can also find it here:
https://statsurge.substack.com/i/149942378/methodology

Yes, Ja’s shoulder injury hurts him a lot here. I did manually adjust for his suspension (and Miles Bridges’ 10-game suspension) which puts him at about the same level as Zion. The biggest difference is that VORP likes the fourth and fifth guys on the Pelicans compared to the Grizzlies. I think some of it may be differences in VORP, and some of it also may be that when Ja comes back, he’ll likely make his teammates better too which the model doesn’t currently account for.

Great points. A nice next step or potential adjustment would be to go through players who have faced one-time injuries and change the forecasts accordingly. Not all injuries are the same as far as their recurring nature, and factoring this in would be great.

I’ve already done a little of this for suspensions (Ja Morant and Miles Bridges) but more would be a good next step.

Haha doing my best! Hope you enjoy and please do let me know if there’s anything I should consider doing differently for better analysis.