Now that the Olympics are behind us, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024-25 season.
In this series, we’re going to preview each team (grouped by tiers ). In terms of predictions, we’re going to avoid hot takes or bold predictions for the sake of drama and simply go with the most realistic outcome. The truth of the matter is: the biggest differentiator between expected success and results tends to be injury related, so it’s difficult to peer into the crystal ball on that front. We’re also going to balance every team’s wins to be an even .500 across the league, which is something most outlets don’t bother to do.
So without further ado, let’s “caste” (get it??) the standings in the EASTERN CONFERENCE.
######TIER ONE: BRAHMINS
(1) BOSTON CELTICS
last season: 64-18, +11.4 point differential, # 1 seed
rankings: 1st on offense, 3rd on defense
regression: As a team, the Boston Celtics were generally healthy in the regular season, so they could get a little worse in that regard. From a shooting perspective, Jrue Holiday’s 42.9% from deep jumps out as a regression candidate. In terms of other factors, their opponents may shoot better from three and from the free-throw line (where they shot third worst in 2023-24). Statistics suggests that those numbers regress, even if you have a good perimeter defense like the Celtics do. All in all, that same team would likely win 62 or 63 games if they rolled it back in full.
subtractions: PF Oshae Brissett, SF Svi Mykhailiuk
additions: SF Baylor Scheierman (rookie), G Ron Harper Jr.
outlook
Well, I guess they did roll it back in full. There’s strikingly little turnover from a dominant title team.
swing player
Even Chicken Little wouldn’t overreact to Jayson Tatum’s struggles in the Olympics. Here in Boston, he’ll be locked into a familiar role with a familiar set of teammates. He’s among the highest “floor” players in the entire NBA. Among the core, the ones you’d be more worried about would be the older veterans like Jrue Holiday (age 34) and Al Horford (age 38). We’d expect a slight decline from Horford, but Holiday has more volatility. As mentioned, he shot very well this past season from three – 42.9% in the regular season, 40.2% in the playoffs. That’s quite a leap for his previous playoff runs, where he shot under 32% for five straight seasons. If he takes a dip, that could be a meaningful one.
prediction
The Boston Celtics’ overall W-L total may depend on the teams around them. They lapped the field last season and won the # 1 seed by 14 games. After winning the title, there may be some natural tendency to let their foot off the gas a little and “only” go 58-24. Of course, they have the talent to challenge for 65 again if need be.
over/under
Well look at that, the Celtics’ over/under right there at 58.5. (I swear I didn’t look that up until afterwards). There’s no compelling reason to let a sportsbook hold your money for an even prop like this, so this is a betting stay away.
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Unfortunately, the Celtics have a lot less cake now that Grant Williams and Jared Sullinger are gone
I think there’s a good chance that the Celtics are as good of a team come playoff time as last season, but with a significant dip in record. On top of the things you mentioned, they are going into the season not as rested as other teams. KP will miss the start of the season. Tatum, Jrue, and White all were part of their Olympic teams. They just made a finals run. Its very possible the start of the season is rocky, before smoothing out closer to the New Year.
Caste system belongs on nbacj
Didn’t do the research to back it up but got the instinct that Jrue 3ball won’t regress, id say he’s getting a lot of open corner 3s because in a 5 out lineup he’s still the last guy you care about.
Yeah definitely easier role than before. But playing with Giannis wasn’t THAT difficult either.
While Giannis pulls guys to him, having 5 guys who can shoot the 3 and a bunch of them being driving threats means Jrue’s always open.
It’s not that playing with Giannis was difficult, it’s that this Celtics team and their synergy and their ability to distribute scoring duties makes it even easier.
If playing with Giannis made it easy like playing against a G League teams, playing on the Celtics makes it easy like playing high schoolers.
It was when Middleton wasn’t healthy.
I don’t think you should be fw the caste system like that.
We’re also going to balance every team’s wins to be an even .500 across the league, which is something most outlets don’t bother to do.
what that mean
Every year, the league’s total wins and total losses should be even.
However when most pundits or fans make predictions for each team they don’t bother to balance it out. It’s usually smart to be optimistic on each end so team fans like the post. but if you combined all the records, it’d be well over .500.