Now that the Olympics are behind us, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024-25 season.

In this series, we’re going to preview each team (grouped by tiers ). In terms of predictions, we’re going to avoid hot takes or bold predictions for the sake of drama and simply go with the most realistic outcome. The truth of the matter is: the biggest differentiator between expected success and results tends to be injury related, so it’s difficult to peer into the crystal ball on that front. We’re also going to balance every team’s wins to be an even .500 across the league, which is something most outlets don’t bother to do.

So without further ado, let’s “caste” (get it??) the standings in the EASTERN CONFERENCE.

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######TIER ONE: BRAHMINS

(1) BOSTON CELTICS

last season: 64-18, +11.4 point differential, # 1 seed

rankings: 1st on offense, 3rd on defense

regression: As a team, the Boston Celtics were generally healthy in the regular season, so they could get a little worse in that regard. From a shooting perspective, Jrue Holiday’s 42.9% from deep jumps out as a regression candidate. In terms of other factors, their opponents may shoot better from three and from the free-throw line (where they shot third worst in 2023-24). Statistics suggests that those numbers regress, even if you have a good perimeter defense like the Celtics do. All in all, that same team would likely win 62 or 63 games if they rolled it back in full.

subtractions: PF Oshae Brissett, SF Svi Mykhailiuk

additions: SF Baylor Scheierman (rookie), G Ron Harper Jr.

outlook

Well, I guess they did roll it back in full. There’s strikingly little turnover from a dominant title team.

swing player

Even Chicken Little wouldn’t overreact to Jayson Tatum’s struggles in the Olympics. Here in Boston, he’ll be locked into a familiar role with a familiar set of teammates. He’s among the highest “floor” players in the entire NBA. Among the core, the ones you’d be more worried about would be the older veterans like Jrue Holiday (age 34) and Al Horford (age 38). We’d expect a slight decline from Horford, but Holiday has more volatility. As mentioned, he shot very well this past season from three – 42.9% in the regular season, 40.2% in the playoffs. That’s quite a leap for his previous playoff runs, where he shot under 32% for five straight seasons. If he takes a dip, that could be a meaningful one.

prediction

The Boston Celtics’ overall W-L total may depend on the teams around them. They lapped the field last season and won the # 1 seed by 14 games. After winning the title, there may be some natural tendency to let their foot off the gas a little and “only” go 58-24. Of course, they have the talent to challenge for 65 again if need be.

over/under

Well look at that, the Celtics’ over/under right there at 58.5. (I swear I didn’t look that up until afterwards). There’s no compelling reason to let a sportsbook hold your money for an even prop like this, so this is a betting stay away.