• 0 Posts
  • 2 Comments
Joined 3 months ago
cake
Cake day: July 5th, 2024

help-circle
  • The problem with the rotation concept is you don’t get to use them one at a time. Jemison can be an average defender and rebounder, but he’s useless offensively. Theis has a more advanced offensive game, but he’s small. You shouldn’t expect Missi or Matkovic to contribute much this year.

    You say there are 5 important things from the center position: Rim protection, perimeter defense, 3 point shooting, rebounding, and passing. Jemison is maybe a slight upgrade in rim protection and an upgrade in perimeter defense, but he’s definitely worse than Valanciunas in the other 3 categories. Theis is maybe a lateral move in 3 point shooting, and a slight upgrade in perimeter defense, but he’s a downgrade from Valanciunas in all 3 other categories. Either way, you’re taking a downgrade in 3 categories.

    You can’t simply add Theis’ 3 point shooting and passing to Trey Jemison’s defense and say you got a better version of Valanciunas. You only get to play 1 at a time.

    This is the fundamental flaw of the moneyball “replace him in the aggregate” thing. You don’t get to replace 1 great player with 3 good ones, you have to replace 3 players with 3 players. “Replace him in the aggregate” only works if you were starting 1 great player alongside 2 completely useless ones. Then you downgrade the great player while upgrading the 2 useless ones and you don’t lose any performance. But if you don’t have 2 completely useless starters to jettison, you don’t get the full benefit.