General narrative I’m getting is Pels are not serious playoff contenders without an urgent upgrade at center. This is despite management and staff of the team all saying they are happy with the current options.

General narrative last year was also that the Pelicans didn’t have “serious playoff contender” center rotation. Surprisingly, the advanced stats claim Pels had a top 10(?!?) rotation at center last year and top 5 by defensive rating but it is true the Pelicans’ rotation of JV, Nance, and Zeller wasn’t a good rotation. JV and Zeller were too slow and Nance was too small. They combined for 18/14 a game with below average defense. In crunch time JV was unusable because he got hunted on defense.

This year the goal was to get faster and more agile at center, and sure it would have been great to trade BI to get a proven starter that ticks those boxes. But the list of centers that are at least average at shooting, defending the paint, and the rim is a short one. Those that may have been available in trade is even shorter. So trading away assets to get a suboptimal option is bad. So the Dollar Store solution at center is going to be capable, including being better at defense.

Going through the options at center

  1. First the one no one talks about. Trey Jemison has size and agility and can defend the perimeter and paint. He doesn’t have much of a history and has zero offensive value, but he can defend better than JV. There is plenty of offense on this team to replace whatever is lost. He didn’t play a ton in Memphis given their depth at big, but he performed well when he played. He also put up 12 rebounds and 2 blocks a game in the G League for the Pels two years ago so management is confident what they are getting.

  2. Daniel Theis is undersized, but still bigger than Nance. He’s an average shooter, and a plus interior defender. He’s an upgrade over Nance defensively and lateral offensively.

  3. Yes Missi - I have no idea. I expect him to play the whole season in the G League. I would imagine the only way he gets meaningful minutes is if he’s great or there’s an injury.

  4. Karlo Matkovic - He is a rookie with little history in the g League or Summer League, but he’s a Euro rookie which is very different. He’s 6’11", athletic and agile. He was blocking 3 shots a game in Europe and has shown promise as a shooter. Basically another 1st round pick. But may be more of a PF admittedly.

  5. Herb/Zion - Both have been mentioned as possibles which has been met with laughs by many. But the reason the Pels haven’t had much luck finding a C who can shoot, is because there aren’t many centers that will need to be defended at the perimeter. So Herb could play more of a free safety role and Zion outweighs most starting centers and can get up. This option is more due to the depth the Pels have at wing than Herb or Zion being options at Center against the Embiid/Joker/KP/Chet/Sabonis types that would determine playoff matchups

The Pelicans are moneyballing the center position. They’re spending nothing on center by ignoring offense. They are going to have at least 3 active options at C every night who can put up 15-20 minutes a night based on matchups.

In a league that values 3 things from the center position: rim protection, perimeter defense/switchability, and 3 point shooting, the Pelicans are better in all three areas than they were last year. Rebounding (though Jemison is promising) and passing (though Theis is good) may be worse but the improved defense is most important.

There still could/should be a BI trade but it’s not urgent and will likely wait until midseason when the Pelicans have a lot more clarity on which of these options have value on a serious playoff contender.

tl;dr None of the individual players are as good as JV so obviously it seems like a downgrade of a weakness. But as a rotation of players, the this year is a better fit for the team than last and I’m confident the defense will be improved.

  • masterpierroundB
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    1 day ago

    The problem with the rotation concept is you don’t get to use them one at a time. Jemison can be an average defender and rebounder, but he’s useless offensively. Theis has a more advanced offensive game, but he’s small. You shouldn’t expect Missi or Matkovic to contribute much this year.

    You say there are 5 important things from the center position: Rim protection, perimeter defense, 3 point shooting, rebounding, and passing. Jemison is maybe a slight upgrade in rim protection and an upgrade in perimeter defense, but he’s definitely worse than Valanciunas in the other 3 categories. Theis is maybe a lateral move in 3 point shooting, and a slight upgrade in perimeter defense, but he’s a downgrade from Valanciunas in all 3 other categories. Either way, you’re taking a downgrade in 3 categories.

    You can’t simply add Theis’ 3 point shooting and passing to Trey Jemison’s defense and say you got a better version of Valanciunas. You only get to play 1 at a time.

    This is the fundamental flaw of the moneyball “replace him in the aggregate” thing. You don’t get to replace 1 great player with 3 good ones, you have to replace 3 players with 3 players. “Replace him in the aggregate” only works if you were starting 1 great player alongside 2 completely useless ones. Then you downgrade the great player while upgrading the 2 useless ones and you don’t lose any performance. But if you don’t have 2 completely useless starters to jettison, you don’t get the full benefit.