Now that the Olympics are behind us, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024-25 season.
In this series, we’re going to preview each team (grouped by tiers ). In terms of predictions, we’re going to avoid hot takes or bold predictions for the sake of drama and simply go with the most realistic outcome. The truth of the matter is: the biggest differentiator between expected success and results tends to be injury related, so it’s difficult to peer into the crystal ball on that front. We’re also going to balance every team’s wins to be an even .500 across the league, which is something most outlets don’t bother to do.
So without further ado, let’s cast a look at the pecking order in the EASTERN CONFERENCE.
######TIER FIVE: BOTTOM FEEDERS
(12) DETROIT PISTONS
last season: 14-68, -9.1 point differential, # 15 seed
rankings: 28th on offense, 26th on defense
regression: The Pistons season was a complete disaster, but you could make the argument that they were a little better than their record shows. Their advanced stats “expected W-L” was 20-62. If you factor in late tanking and 20 missed games from Cade Cunningham, those 20 wins may have been the more expected result from last year’s roster. It may have even been a tick or two higher without Killian Hayes around.
subtractions: SG Quentin Grimes, C James Wiseman
additions: coach J.B. Bickerstaff, PF Tobias Harris, SG Tim Hardaway Jr., SG Malik Beasley, SF Ron Holland ®, C Paul Reed
outlook
How bad were the Detroit Pistons last year? So bad that they got a $100M coach Monty Williams fired in his first year on the job. New coach J.B. Bickerstaff will come in and presumably run a more modern approach, hoping to improve on a team that finished bottom 5 in three-point attempts and three-point percentage.
Of course, new personnel helps in that endeavor. To that end, the team added Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Malik Beasley, none of whom are shy about firing away. Late season addition Simone Fontecchio also showed promise in that department. Hopefully this new supporting cast should improve the team’s 3-point numbers, but also open up space for their stars to be more efficient.
swing player
Rookie Ron Holland will be an intriguing boom/bust prospect, although he figures to need some time to develop his own shot (as does sophomore Ausar Thompson). But meanwhile, the clock is ticking louder on Jaden Ivey and his time in Detroit. When he was drafted, his explosive athleticism appeared to be a great complement to Cade Cunningham. The marriage hasn’t worked yet, and Monty Williams looked baffled about what to do about it. Can Bickerstaff get Ivey and Cunningham to succeed together? Or will they need to be staggered to be most effective? If it’s the latter, it’ll be hard to justify a massive contract extension.
prediction
Detroit will absolutely be better (record wise) this year, but the playoffs or play-in may still be out of reach. Their exact W-L may depend on the “will” to win. Most teams in their circumstance would compete for half the year and then throw in the towel to chase lottery balls. However, the Pistons have played that lottery game and lost the last few years. Among the “tanking” teams, they may want to push up to 26-56 more than most.
over/under
The Pistons’ over/under is a little low at 25.0 so you can lean to the “over,” but more likely stay away.
(13) CHICAGO BULLS
last season: 39-43, -1.4 point differential, # 9 seed
rankings: 20th on offense, 21st on defense
regression: The Bulls were mostly healthy last season aside from Zach LaVine who missed significant time and only played 25 games in the regular season. Their shooting was perhaps better than it would have been expected given their players’ career averages. All in all, they finished about where they should have given their performance level.
subtractions: SF DeMar DeRozan, PG Alex Caruso, C Andre Drummond
additions: PG Josh Giddey, SF Matas Buzelis ®, PF Jalen Smith, SG Chris Duarte
outlook
GM Arturas Karnisovas would not have survived long in the Wild West, because he has one of the slowest triggers around. The team finally blew it up (more or less) a year or two after they should have. Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine are still around for now, but DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are off to greener pastures.
In their place, the Bulls will see what they’ve got in Matas Buzelis and a reclamation project in Josh Giddey. Of the two, I’m more optimistic about Buzelis. At 6’10", he has a lot of skill and could make a dark horse run at Rookie of the Year if the team gives him a featured role.
swing player
Aside from the young prospects, the biggest wild card here is Coby White. He took a remarkable leap up in production – going from 9.7 points per game to 19.1 and finishing as the runner-up in “Most Improved.” Perhaps that success is less surprising than it should have been. His TS% (57.0%) wasn’t actually much different than it had been the prior two years (56.4%, 57.2%). In that sense, maybe his success was just a matter of getting unleashed. However, I’m a little worried about how he’ll do in a post DeRozan world if defenses start to focus more on him.
prediction
If Billy Donovan and the Bulls wanted to push as hard as possible and chase the 8th seed again, they could potentially win 35 games. However, it makes a lot more sense for them to embrace their youth and try their luck in the lottery instead. 25-57 feels like the most expected result.
over/under
The Bulls aren’t offered on all books, but they’re around 28.0 on most available sites. On paper our numbers suggest a clear “under” here, but our predictions have some projection involved so I’d be inclined to stay away to stay safe.
(14) BROOKLYN NETS
last season: 32-50, -2.9 point differential, # 11 seed
rankings: 23rd on offense, 20th on defense
regression: The Nets were disappointing (after a preseason over/under of 35.5), but it’s hard to blame health for that. Star Mikal Bridges even played all 82 games. There are a few other minor factors including point differential and opponent FT% (which was 80.7%, highest in the NBA) that suggests this same team may have won about 33 or 34 games in an expected season.
subtractions: SF Mikal Bridges
additions: coach Jordi Fernandez, PF Bojan Bogdanovic, SG Shake Milton
outlook
My pet theory is that Brooklyn had kept around some solid complementary pieces in an attempt to lure a star like Donovan Mitchell to town, but when that hope fizzled, they pivoted into tank mode instead. They traded Mikal Bridges for a boatload of picks (including their own). However, their other best players (Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, Dennis Schroder, Cam Thomas, Ben Simmons) are still on the roster for now.
So in theory, the Nets should descend down the standings and try to win 10-15 games in a “Sag for Flagg” tank. They re-acquired their draft pick for a reason. However, to make use of it, they may need to either chuck out more pieces or fake some injuries. Because Mikal Bridges (as good as he is) isn’t worth 15 wins on his own.
swing player
Reddit punching bag Ben Simmons could be the swing player here. At age 28, there’s some usefulness to his skill set given his size at 6’10" and defensive versatility. In a sense, he could be an interesting yin-and-yang pair with Cam Thomas. After all, Simmons is scared to shoot – and Cam Thomas wakes up every morning starving for more shots. But if Simmons can’t regain his mojo this year (as his contact expired) then his entire career may face a crossroads next summer.
prediction
The roster isn’t awful, but all the signs (trading for picks, rookie coach) suggest that the Brooklyn Nets will embrace the tank. 21-61 should be enough to land in that top/bottom 5.
over/under
The Nets have the lowest over/under in the league at 19.5, but trying to project trades makes it more of a stay away.
(15) WASHINGTON WIZARDS
last season: 15-67, -9.3 point differential, # 14 seed
rankings: 25th on offense, 28th on defense
regression: The Wizards were awful last season, but perhaps not as awful as the 15-67 record. Their point differential suggested a team closer to 20 wins. And as bad as he was, it’d be hard for league “LVP” Jordan Poole to repeat his performance last season (shooting 32.6% from three).
subtractions: SF Deni Avdija, PG Tyus Jones, PG Landry Shamet
additions: PF Alex Carr ®, C Jonas Valanciunas, PG Malcolm Brogdon, SG Bub Carrington ®
outlook
Under exec Michael Winger, the Washington Wizards have clearly embraced the darkness and braced themselves for a long winter. Trading Deni Avdija (a decent starter) only reinforced that idea.
If you’re a Wizards fan, the best you can look forward to is seeing if your prospects show signs of life. There’s some interesting talent here, from Alex Sarr to Bilal Coulibaly to Bub Carrington.
swing player
It wasn’t pretty for Alex Sarr in the Summer League, and no one should be expecting an immediate splash for a young player who didn’t even start for his Australian team last year. However, I’m nominating Sarr because the Wizards need to figure out what they have here – more so in terms of skill set than results. Did the team sign Jonas Valanciunas because they want Sarr to play more of a stretch PF role? Or is that merely to buy him time to bulk up and be their center of the future? The Spurs took some time to find the best way to play around Victor Wembanyama, and the Wizards need to do a bootleg version of that here. Forget the record; this season will be a failure if they end the year without knowing what direction Sarr and Coulibaly are headed in.
prediction
The team has some veterans (like Valanciunas and Kyle Kuzma), but coach Brian Keefe would be doing the franchise a disservice if he won too many games and avoided a top 4 spot in the lottery. 18-64 should be the type of record to lock that in.
over/under
The Wizards’ 21.5 over/under may actually be a little high. I’d bet a little on the UNDER, presuming that the team wants to tank toward the end of the year and secure a top 5 pick.
previous entries
Tier 2: Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia
You must log in or register to comment.