Now that the Olympics are behind us, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024-25 season.
In this series, we’re going to preview each team (grouped by tiers ). In terms of predictions, we’re going to avoid hot takes or bold predictions for the sake of drama and simply go with the most realistic outcome. The truth of the matter is: the biggest differentiator between expected success and results tends to be injury related, so it’s difficult to peer into the crystal ball on that front. We’re also going to balance every team’s wins to be an even .500 across the league, which is something most outlets don’t bother to do.
So without further ado, let’s cast a look at the pecking order in the EASTERN CONFERENCE.
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######TIER FOUR: PLAY-IN THREATS
(9) ATLANTA HAWKS
last season: 36-46, -2.2 point differential, # 10 seed
rankings: 12th on offense, 27th on defense
regression: There are a few factors that we can isolate for potential regression. Several of the Hawks starters (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, De’Andre Hunter) missed 20+ games; they should be a little healthier as a team this year. Opponents also shot 38.4% from three against them, 3rd highest. While that appears to be a sign of poor defense, it also has some regression baked in. Overall, last year’s team was likely closer to a 40-win club.
subtractions: PG Dejounte Murray, SF Saddiq Bey, SF A.J. Griffin
additions: SF Zacc Risacher, PF Larry Nance Jr., GF Dyson Daniels
outlook
The idea that defensive “stopper” Dejounte Murray could fix the Hawks’ historically woeful defense was a miscalculation. At 6’5" 180, Murray didn’t have the size to guard bigger wings, which only added to an undersized lineup. The rotation figures to be bigger this season with additions Zacc Risacher, Larry Nance Jr., and Dyson Daniels. If Risacher (6’9") enters the lineup for Murray, that automatically makes their starting lineup almost an inch taller on average. Offensively, the Hawks should hope that Trae Young can soak up the oxygen left from Murray and flirt with 30-10 averages.
swing player
In his third season, Jalen Johnson quietly averaged 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists with solid efficiency. The coaching staff should be ready to unleash him even more at the expense of underachievers De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey (who is gone anyway). There’s a chance Johnson could be viewed as one of the top young PF’s in the NBA. But if his shooting regresses (back down to 32.8% career averages) then that hurts that plan to make him a secondary star.
prediction
The fit between Trae Young and Dejounte Murray never worked optimally, so there’s some potential for some “addition by subtraction” here. I’m also still giving the benefit of the doubt to coach Quin Snyder given his previous success in Utah. If he can settle on the right rotations, this team should be closer to .500 (maybe 40-42) than last year’s record.
over/under
The Atlanta Hawks’ over/unders range from 35.5 to 36.5 wins on different sites, all of which would put them in a safe bet the OVER camp. The vibes aren’t great right now but you can use that to your advantage.
(10) CHARLOTTE HORNETS
last season: 21-61, -10.2 point differential, # 13 seed
rankings: 28th on offense, 29th on defense
regression: The advanced stats suggest this team was even worse than their record, with an SRS (schedule-adjusted power ranking) of dead last in the NBA. Of course, a lot of that is clouded by injuries to star LaMelo Ball (who played 22 games total) and center Mark Williams (who played 19 games). It’s very difficult to gauge the true record of last year’s team as a result. For what it’s worth, the Hornets were 7-14 in games when Ball played at least 20 minutes, which would translate to a 27 win pace.
subtractions: PF Davis Bertans
additions: coach Charles Lee, SF Josh Green, PF Tidjane Salaun ®, PG Reggie Jackson
outlook
Given their record, there’s a surprising amount of optimism here. The biggest reason for that would be Brandon Miller, who’s coming off a strong rookie year and justifying the Paul George comps that he got in the draft process. New coach Charles Lee also seems like a breath of fresh air. If he can get his young stars on the same page, the Hornets may have one of the more promising young cores in the Eastern Conference.
How soon will that take to manifest into wins…? At first blush you’d guess a few years. LaMelo Ball is 22. Brandon Miller is 21. That said… these Hornets did go 43-39 back in '21-22 when LaMelo Ball was only 20 years old. Given that, there’s some upside potential to this upcoming season.
swing player
He’s not one of their big-name scorers, but third-year center Mark Williams may be their swing player for this season. Armed with mobility and a 7’6" wingspan, Williams is a legitimately impactful defender when he’s healthy. The trouble is: he hasn’t been fully healthy yet. He played 43 games a rookie and only 19 games as a sophomore. This team isn’t deep enough at the center position to withstand another serious injury here.
prediction
Presuming health, I’m optimistic about this roster. Not only do the Hornets have star talent, but they have some role players who fit around the gaps well. New wing Josh Green is a good athlete and a sneaky-solid passer. Maligned PF Grant Williams is still a knockdown shooter from his spots. And if you ignore the ugly off-the-court issues, Miles Bridges is a bargain as a dynamic SF-PF. The team fits well together – with the bigger questions regarding their youth and durability. But there’s enough here to take a guess at a 30-52 record.
over/under
The most common over/under is 29.5, which would make this a stay away.
(11) TORONTO RAPTORS
last season: 25-57, -6.4 point differential, # 12 seed
rankings: 24th on offense, 25th on defense
regression: It’s difficult to gauge the team’s “real record” here, too, because the Toronto Raptors made their big moves in midseason, trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. They also went on a mad dash to tank toward the end of the year, losing 19 of their last 21 games. If the team tried hard all season long with their end-of-year roster, around 33 wins may have been a realistic result.
subtractions: SG Gary Trent Jr., SF Jordan Nwora
additions: SG Ja’Kobe Walter ®, PG Davion Mitchell
outlook
Masai Ujiri is a great general manager who helped the Toronto Raptors win the NBA championship. For his sake, it’s worth mentioning and reminding fans of that – because all his moves since have been head scratchers. As mentioned, he’s slowly torn the team down. But rather than fill it with draft capital, he’s filled it with fairly-young talent instead like Immanuel Quickley (25 years old), R.J. Barrett (24 years old), and Jakob Poeltl (28 years old) to go around cornerstone Scottie Barnes instead.
What’s the plan here? For Barnes to take a leap and lift this team into the play-in range? Or would the team be content to sink into the bottom 6 again and try their luck in the lottery?
swing player
I’m curious to see how the rotational veterans do, including Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown. If this roster all gels together, then maybe they do make a playoff push after all. But if things go sideways, then the team should hope that Olynyk ($13M salary) and Brown ($23M salary) play well enough to be viewed as trade assets. I imagine Ujiri will keep the rest of the core together, but those are two players who probably don’t fit the long-term timeline here.
prediction
For all these below-average teams, the desire to win will affect the W-L standings. My guess is that coach Darko Rajakovic – now in Year 2 – is eager to put his foot on the gas after a lost first season. With that in mind, going 29-53 feels realistic.
over/under
At 29.5, the Raptors are in the stay away category.
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