Now that the Olympics are behind us, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024-25 season.
In this series, we’re going to preview each team (grouped by tiers ). In terms of predictions, we’re going to avoid hot takes or bold predictions for the sake of drama and simply go with the most realistic outcome. The truth of the matter is: the biggest differentiator between expected success and results tends to be injury related, so it’s difficult to peer into the crystal ball on that front. We’re also going to balance every team’s wins to be an even .500 across the league, which is something most outlets don’t bother to do.
So without further ado, let’s cast a look at the pecking order in the EASTERN CONFERENCE.
######TIER TWO: LEGIT TITLE CONTENDERS
(2) MILWAUKEE BUCKS
last season: 49-33, +2.6 point differential, # 3 seed
rankings: 6th on offense, 19th on defense
regression: The Bucks were fairly healthy last regular season with the exception of Khris Middleton (who played 55 games and never looked 100%). From a shooting perspective, there are a couple of potential positive regressions that may help. Damian Lillard should shoot better than his 35.4% from deep. Opponents should shoot worse than the 80.7% from the FT line (which was second highest.) All in all, last year’s roster probably should have won 51 or 52 games in a normal season.
subtractions: SG Gary Trent Jr., PG Delon Wright, SF Taurean Prince
additions: SG Malik Beasley, PG Patrick Beverley, PF Jae Crowder
outlook
Getting a full summer to prepare should help Damian Lillard find his footing in Milwaukee and should help Doc Rivers build out his program. Still, at the end of the day, the Bucks’ bigger concerns are a matter of age and a matter of depth.
How big of an upgrade is Gary Trent Jr. going to be on Malik Beasley? Statistically, they’ve actually been similar players over their careers. Beasley has averaged 17.0 points per 36 on 38.5% shooting from deep (offering little else). Trent Jr. has averaged 17.9 points per 36 on 38.6% shooting from deep (offering little else). There should be a slight upgrade here, but it’s not much. In fact, I’d suggest that the Delon Wright upgrade from Patrick Beverley may be the more helpful of the additions. Hopefully Doc Rivers trusts Wright to play 20+ minutes, because he’s still an effective rotational player.
swing player
For the Bucks, it’s all about injuries. Damian Lillard is 34, Brook Lopez is 36. Khris Middleton is turning 33 in August, with knees that are starting to look wonkier than his eyes. If Middleton can somehow get back to the level he was at (averaging 24-7-5 during their title run), then this starting lineup is a legitimate championship contender. If he’s breaking down, then the team doesn’t have the depth to compete with the top of the class.
prediction
In terms of pure regular season standings, Milwaukee may be 3 or 4 because of concerns about age and depth. But in terms of top-end upside, they have the best chance of beating Boston to me if everything settles into place. Overall, going 52-30 is a realistic projection, with some sizable downside baked into that if the old dogs can’t stay healthy.
over/under
The Bucks are listed anywhere from 50.5 to 51.5 on sports sites (with an average of 51.0). There’s no great value there so I’d recommend a stay away.
(3) NEW YORK KNICKS
last season: 50-32, +4.6 point differential, # 2 seed
rankings: 7th on offense, 10th on defense
regression: The Villanova kids (Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart) were all healthy last year, averaging nearly 80 games between them. But there were absences littered elsewhere: Julius Randle only played 46 games, Mitchell Robinson only played 31, and OG Anunoby only played 23 (coming over late in the year). With a full roster all season long, this is a team that could have won 52 games. Although there is a sidenote to monitor: opponents shot 76.4% from the FT line against them, worst in the league. Chances are that should regress to the mean to some degree.
subtractions: C Isaiah Hartenstein, PF Bojan Bogdanovic, SG Alec Burks, C Precious Achiuwa
additions: SF Mikal Bridges, PG Cameron Payne, PG Tyler Kolek ®
outlook
The Knicks have doubled down, tripled down, quintupled down on the Villanova Wildcats connection with Mikal Bridges. I love the idea of Bridges and OG Anunoby patrolling the wings like panthers. The lineup may even move a little faster after ranking 30th in pace last year. Losing Isaiah Hartenstein stings a little, but this roster still has enough youth and depth to make a run at the # 1 seed (or at least, the 2 seed after Boston).
swing player
I’m curious to see how coach Tom Thibodeau works Julius Randle back into the lineup after a solid playoff run without him. Now that Hartenstein is gone, it’d make some sense to play Randle some minutes as a smallball 5 when Robinson is out. We haven’t seen Thibs go with that often though, presumably because Randle is limited as a shot blocker. Still, it’s a smallball (or “medium-ball”) league and the Knicks may have to lean into that.
prediction
The Knicks should be a well-oiled machine that should roll past 50 wins unless they start breaking down from the hard-driving Thibs. Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunobuy are particular injury risks. Still, I’d pencil the Knicks in for 52-30 in the regular season, with 55+ win upside. Their playoff success may be more debatable though – and may depend on how well Julius Randle meshes with the 'Cats crew.
over/under
Most sites have the Knicks at a healthy 53.5 wins, which is a little optimistic and may make me lean to the “under.” Still, it’s not a juicy difference so this would be another stay away.
(4) PHILADELPHIA 76ers
last season: 47-35, +3.1 point differential, # 7 seed
rankings: 14th on offense, 11th on defense
regression: It was a forgettable year for Sixers fans. But in a way, it’s actually impressive that the team still won 47 games despite the fact that Joel Embiid missed half the season. If he played the entire year, at least 50 wins would have been a more expected result.
subtractions: SF Paul George, SG Caleb Martin, C Andre Drummond, SG Jared McCain ®, SG Eric Gordon
additions: PF Tobias Harris, SG De’Anthony Melton, PF Robert Covington, PF Nic Batum, SG Buddy Hield, C Paul Reed
outlook
When the James Harden drama boiled over, GM Daryl Morey decided to prioritize cap space over immediate help. It was a debatable move (with Joel Embiid still healthy and in MVP form at the time), but it clearly paid off during this offseason as the team poached Paul George from the Clippers. Now 34, George isn’t in his prime, but he still has a couple more seasons of near All-Star level play in him. Given his shooting (41.3% from three, 90.7% from FT last year), he’s also one of the easier plug-and-play stars around.
The move should give the Sixers a rare three-headed monster with Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George, with enough depth to make a serious run for the top spots in the Eastern Conference.
swing player
It’s overly simplistic but it’s true: the Sixers’ upside will live and die with Joel Embiid’s health. He was playing better than ever last season (34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists) before he went down. But since coming back, he hasn’t look fully energized yet in either the playoffs or Olympics.
What can we expect from Embiid going forward? Asking for a full season is asking too much. For his career, he’s averaged 43.3 regular season games per season (and 54.3 if you don’t count the first two he missed).
prediction
If Joel Embiid plays 70 games, this team could win 55 games. But as mentioned, that’s not just optimistic – that’s unrealistic at this point. If we figure it’s more in the 55/60 range, then the team should be around 51-31. Of course, none of it matters except for Embiid’s health in the playoffs. Having Andre Drummond around should help give them some leeway there. They’d be wise to let him go on a prime Shaq cruise control system (and reduce his per-game workload). MVP trophies are nice and all, but it’s time to prioritize the playoffs.
over/under
The Sixers are right in that same range at 52.5; if you want to bet against Joel Embiid’s healthy you can short that number. But overall this doesn’t excite me so I’d stay away.
–
previous previews
Celtics Knicks and Bucks are all beatable if Embiid is healthy