Gold medal probably. Tons of players win rings with varying levels of contribution from obviously first ballot hofers to guys that don’t live past their rookie deals. Making team USA though? Being good enough for that roster puts you in truly elite company as a basketball player. You have to be a top 20-30 player in the league to do that
Bennett. The mlb draft is very very difficult to predict. Lots of things happen to prospects all the time between draft day and (potential) first mlb game because almost every draft pick still has a long road of minor league/division 1 baseball to get through. Most lottery picks in basketball are essentially guaranteed an nba roster spot the very next season. The nfl and the nba has the most impactful drafts. The mlb and the nhl are much harder to predict.