Last week, I appeared as a guest on the Basketball Intelligence podcast to discuss the win totals for the upcoming NBA season.

In preparation for the podcast, I dug into both conferences and picked some of the most undervalued teams.

Here are my Top 4 undervalued teams from the Eastern Conference for the 24/25 season.

Win Totals provided by Bet ESPN

Atlanta - 35.5 wins: (Over)

This is the year the Quinn Snyder “blender” era officially begins in Atlanta! I expect these Hawks to comfortably surpass the 40-win mark.

The Dejounte Murray trade is addition by subtraction. While Murray is a high-quality player in a vacuum, his skill set did not complement Trae Young’s, and in Atlanta, like him or not, everything revolves around Young.

Much of my belief in Atlanta comes from covering the Boomers during the Paris Olympics for The Pick and Roll AU and witnessing the summer of Dyson Daniels!

Daniels is an absolute demon on the defensive end of the court, and with an increased role, I fully expect Daniels to be in the All-Defensive conversation this year.

He is precisely what Atlanta needs: an All-Defensive guard who can provide cover for Young, be a 2nd side playmaker, and thrive as a cutter when Young draws ten defensive eyes.

Sometimes, it’s just a matter of fit. Murray was a square peg trying to fit into a round hole in Atlanta. His game and skillset were too established and versatile to play the reduced on-ball role needed next to Young.

Young is like an aircraft carrier within the Atlanta offense. Everything comes to him. Daniel’s game is ideally crafted to fit and be amplified by the defensive attention Young commands. His cutting and defensive energy will endear him as a fan favorite in Atlanta, and I suspect his biggest fan will be Young.

Last year, during the 23/24 season, Atlanta gave up 120.5 points per game; only Washington gave up more.

They ranked in the bottom 5 in the league in:

1. Opponents Made FGs.
2. Opponents Made Threes.
3. Opponents FG% and 3P%.

They know they’re allowed to try on that end of the court, right?! Daniels will help here, but he’s not a silver bullet. I’m banking on the fact that it can’t get worse on that end of the floor, can it?

Despite the abysmal defensive stats, their two most expensive players not fitting together, and lousy injury luck (MIP candidate Jalen Johnson missed 26 games due to injury), these Atlanta Hawks still amassed 36 wins.

With 19 games against Detroit, Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Chicago, this Atlanta squad has plenty of opportunities for wins.

Prediction: This team will easily cover the 35.5.

Don’t forget that Atlanta is circled on the calendar for players; we’re not talking about a road trip to Cleveland or Milwaukee. The city of Atlanta will always provide a few wins a year.

Milwaukee - 50.5 (OVER)

The 23/24 Bucks produced 49 wins during one of the most turbulent off-court seasons from a contender since the Brooklyn Nets employed KD and Kyrie.

Within a 365-day window, Milwaukee turned its world upside down multiple times:

• Championship-winning former coach fired.
• A new coach with a second-place record after 43 games was fired.
• The newly hired coach publicly said he didn’t want to take the job.
• Newly acquired superstar Damian Lillard begins his divorce proceedings.
• Kris Middleton’s comeback from surgery is less than ideal.

Some of this harm was self-inflicted, while others were out of their control. Either way, the damage was done, but even with said damage, this team still produced 49 wins.

Milwaukee’s Core 5 are the same as last year: Giannis, Dame, Lopez, Middleton, and Portis. The optimistic view would be that the growing pains of learning to play together have subsided, paving the way for cohesive and exciting basketball in the land of Beer and Cheese.

Lord knows low-hanging fruit is available to Milwaukee via an uptick in the Giannis and Dame two-man game volume.

No matter how poorly the previous 365 days went in Milwaukee, Horst and his staff knocked this offseason out of the park. Significantly upgrading the ancillary parts around the Bucks Core 5 players:

1. Malik Beasley → Gary Trent Jr.
2. Patrick Beverly → Delon Wright
3. Jae Crowder → Taurean Prince

All three of these swaps are massive upgrades for regular and postseason basketball; this Milwaukee team is a legitimate threat to win an NBA title.

1. Trent Jr. gives you a close enough facsimile to Beasley shooting-wise, plus a little more ball-handling and creation as a 2nd side playmaker.
2. Wright was hidden away from the casual NBA fan during his time in D.C., but sickos like me who watched Washington games saw he was outstanding. He consistently plays adult basketball, and his defensive tenacity and offensive self-awareness fit perfectly into what this Milwaukee team is all about.
3. Apex Jae Crowder is a better player than Prince; the only problem is that version of Crowder never made it out of Phoenix. Prince will be tasked with being an innings eater in the 3&D role to take the wear and tear off Middleton, Giannis, and Portis.

Add up the coaching and player continuity, *hopefully* injury regression, and the three role-player swaps, and you’ve got a 53+ win team.

Prediction: Milwaukee covers the over, and it’s not coming down to the wire; they’ll cover it with room to spare.

Charlotte - 29.5 (Over)

Adult basketball is coming to The Queen City—well, at least the most adult version Charlotte has seen in quite some time.

For the first time in a long time, Charlotte will have a group of players who are capable of playing adult basketball AND staying healthy at the same time.

In previous seasons, Charlotte had the necessary veterans, but they couldn’t stay healthy enough to play the minutes required to influence the younger players.

Add in the considerable generational divide between Steve Clifford and the Gen-Z-heavy roster, and it was a recipe for a complete detachment from any “care factor” on the court.

Hiring Charles Lee dramatically changes the status quo in Charlotte:

• His success in Boston will give him the cachet needed to get total buy-in from the young vets on the roster.
• The Charlotte offense will no longer be in the league’s bottom half in 3PA per game.

Guys like Grant Williams, Miles Bridges (he’s pretty good at basketball, and I guess the NBA is okay with him playing), Cody Martin, and Josh Green know that winning here will cement their status in the league and almost guarantee they will reach the 10-year pension mark.

These young vets will be expected to be the adults in the room, setting the standard for young talent like Ball, Williams, and Miller.

Miller is the crown jewel prospect, a 6’9" wing who’s shown he has the potential to become an apex predator wing that every NBA team is constantly falling over themselves to acquire.

If Miller can take the second-year leap, a common trend among superstars, he will establish Charlotte as a serious team—something the Queen City has longed for since the days of Zo, Mugsy, and LJ.

Prediction: Over. Miller leaps, Lee pops as a coach, and serious basketball will return to Charlotte (at some point in the future).

Orlando - 47.5 (3U Under)

Orlando snuck up on teams early last year. They weren’t just the hunter; they were camouflaged, sneaking up on their prey. This season that won’t be the case; everyone sees them coming, and they will get their opponent’s full attention nightly.

Orlando plays hard every game, which is not always a common trait during the NBA’s grueling 82-game season. Mosley has complete buy-in from his guys; you can see it on full display anytime you turn on an Orlando game; his guys would run through a brick wall for him!

This commitment to Mosley and playing hard every game helped Orlando dominate opponents during the 23/24 season in statistical categories that reflect their punch-first nature:

• Free Throws Attempted - First.
• Fouls Drawn - First
• Steals - 5th

At some point, their shooting becomes too much to overcome; you must be able to shoot the ball as a team.

Calling Orlando’s shooting numbers anemic is an understatement. Here’s a snapshot of the Orlando shooting shortcomings during the 23/24 season:

• 3 Pointers Made - Last.
• 3 Pointers Attempted - Second to Last.
• 3 Point Percentage - 24th.
• Turnovers - 24th.

To summarize, they don’t shoot many threes and don’t shoot them well—not exactly a potent combination in today’s NBA. And yes, the turnovers are related to the shooting. Too often, Orlando players will turn down open shots and force drives into compressed defenses.

This commitment to Mosley and playing hard every game helped Orlando dominate opponents during the 23/24 season in statistical categories that reflect their punch-first nature:

• Free Throws Attempted - First.
• Fouls Drawn - First
• Steals - 5th

At some point, their shooting becomes too much to overcome; you must be able to shoot the ball as a team.

Calling Orlando’s shooting numbers anemic is an understatement. Here’s a snapshot of the Orlando shooting shortcomings during the 23/24 season:

• 3 Pointers Made - Last.
• 3 Pointers Attempted - Second to Last.
• 3 Point Percentage - 24th.
• Turnovers - 24th.

To summarize, they don’t shoot many threes and don’t shoot them well—not exactly a potent combination in today’s NBA. And yes, turnovers are directly related to turning down shots and forcing drives into compressed defenses.

No one was a bigger culprit of these turnovers than Paolo Banchero, who finished in the Top 10 during the regular season with 3.1 per game and led the playoffs with 4.6 per game.

Unless something has drastically changed within Banchero’s shooting mechanics or his appetite for taking three-point shots has shifted, I can’t see this team making a giant leap forward.

Prediction: Under, by a hair. This one will be a sweat till the final day of the season. Mosley’s guys play hard, and in the NBA, that’s worth at least .500 when you have decent talent. Plus, they play Brooklyn, Washington, and Detroit twelve times.