Sports Odds History is what Basketball Reference uses as their Preseason Odds. Here is a table of the odds on favorite to win the championship along with the second-best odds, ordered by largest gap to smallest:
Season | Favorites | Next Best Odds | Gap | Outcome of Favorite |
---|---|---|---|---|
2018-19 | Warriors (-168) | Celtics (+620) | 788 | 57-25, Lost Finals |
2017-18 | Warriors (-187) | Cavaliers (+515) | 702 | 58-24, Won Finals |
2016-17 | Warriors (-128) | Cavaliers (+385) | 513 | 67-15, Won Finals |
1997-98 | Bulls (+140) | Jazz (+600) | 460 | 62-20, Won Finals |
2024-25 | Celtics (+300) | Knicks (+725) | 425 | TBD |
2000-01 | Lakers (+180) | Blazers (+600) | 420 | 56-26, Won Finals |
1996-97 | Bulls (+100) | Lakers (+500) | 400 | 69-13, Won Finals |
2013-14 | Heat (+200) | Thunder (+550) | 350 | 54-28, Lost Finals |
2001-02 | Lakers (+200) | Spurs (+500) | 300 | 58-24, Won Finals |
2020-21 | Lakers (+275) | Bucks (+550) | 275 | 42-30, Lost 1st Round |
2003-04 | Lakers (+140) | Spurs (+400) | 260 | 56-26, Lost Finals |
1992-93 | Bulls (+120) | Blazers (+350) | 230 | 57-25, Won Finals |
1987-88 | Lakers (+120) | Celtics (+350) | 230 | 62-20, Won Finals |
2011-12 | Heat (+225) | Lakers (+450) | 225 | 46-20, Won Finals |
2015-16 | Cavaliers (+280) | Warriors (+480) | 200 | 57-25, Won Finals |
1989-90 | Pistons (+300) | Suns (+500) | 200 | 59-23, Won Finals |
1986-87 | Celtics (+160) | Rockets (+350) | 190 | 59-23, Lost Finals |
2021-22 | Nets (+240) | Lakers (+400) | 160 | 44-38, Lost 1st Round |
1991-92 | Bulls (+250) | Blazers (+400) | 150 | 67-15, Won Finals |
2002-03 | Lakers (+180) | Kings (+300) | 120 | 50-32, Lost 2nd Round |
2022-23 | Celtics (+500) | Warriors (+600) | 100 | 57-25, Lost ECF |
2005-06 | Spurs (+250) | Heat (+350) | 100 | 63-19, Lost 2nd Round |
2004-05 | Spurs (+400) | Kings (+500) | 100 | 59-23, Won Finals |
1994-95 | Suns (+350) | 4 Teams (+450) | 100 | 59-23, Lost 2nd Round |
1993-94 | Knicks (+200) | Suns (+300) | 100 | 57-25, Lost Finals |
1990-91 | Pistons (+350) | Lakers (+450) | 100 | 50-32, Lost ECF |
1985-86 | Lakers (+160) | Celtics (+250) | 90 | 62-20, Lost WCF |
2014-15 | Cavaliers (+275) | Spurs (+350) | 75 | 53-29, Lost Finals |
2010-11 | Heat (+175) | Lakers (+250) | 75 | 58-24, Lost Finals |
2009-10 | Lakers (+225) | Cavaliers (+350) | 75 | 57-25, Won Finals |
2012-13 | Heat (+225) | Lakers (+275) | 50 | 66-16, Won Finals |
2006-07 | Mavericks (+400) | Spurs (+450) | 50 | 67-15, Lost 1st Round |
1999-00 | Blazers (+350) | Lakers (+400) | 50 | 59-23, Lost WCF |
1998-99 | Lakers (+300) | Jazz (+350) | 50 | 31-19, Lost 2nd Round |
1995-96 | Bulls (+350) | Magic (+400) | 50 | 72-10, Won Finals |
1988-89 | Lakers (+350) | Pistons (+400) | 50 | 57-25, Lost Finals |
2019-20 | Clippers (+425) | Lakers (+450) | 25 | 49-23, Lost 2nd Round |
2023-24 | Celtics (+450) | Nuggets (+450) | 0 | 64-18, Won Finals / 57-25, Lost 2nd Round |
2008-09 | Lakers (+350) | Celtics (+350) | 0 | 65-17, Won Finals / 62-20, Lost 2nd Round |
2007-08 | Spurs (+450) | Mavericks (+450) | 0 | 56-26, Lost WCF / 51-31, Lost 1st Round |
1984-85 | Lakers (+200) | Celtics (+200) | 0 | 62-20, Won Finals / 63-19, Lost Finals |
Some extra notes:
- The odds on favorite ended up in the finals 28/44 times (counting the 4 co-favorites twice), winning 19 and losing 9.
- None missed the post-season, and only 4 favorites lost in the 1st round of the playoffs
- The 2021-22 Nets had the lowest winning percentage of a favorite at .537 (44-38) and are the only favorite to not win a single playoff game, making them statistically the most disappointing favorite of the last 41 years.
- The upcoming season with the 2nd best odds Knicks at +725 would be the lowest odds of the team leading “the field”
- The 2017-2019 Warriors are the only teams to be minus favorites, making them the most foregone conclusions in history, and it’s not really close.
- The 2022-23 Celtics at +500 were the “worst” favorites in the last 41 years
What stands out to you?
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