The floor would be if every 1 possession score resulted in a loss, and the ceiling would be if they were all wins. The number of wins are listed as a range, it’s not a record. Ordered by ceiling.
Eastern Conference
- Celtics: 58 - 71
- Magic: 41 - 56
- Bucks: 45 - 55
- Knicks: 46 - 53
- Cavaliers: 39 - 53
- Pacers: 41 - 52
- 76ers: 44 - 51
- Heat: 38 - 50
- Bulls: 33 - 47
- Hawks: 27 - 42
- Nets: 28 - 38
- Raptors: 20 - 35
- Hornets: 14 - 24
- Pistons: 13 - 21
- Wizards: 11 - 20
Western Conference
- Nuggets: 51 - 63
- Timberwolves: 49 - 62
- Thunder: 51 - 60
- Warriors: 42 - 57
- Pelicans: 48 - 56
- Clippers: 45 - 55
- Suns: 41 - 55
- Mavericks: 45 - 52
- Kings: 40 - 51
- Lakers: 36 - 51
- Rockets: 33 - 46
- Jazz: 26 - 39
- Grizzlies: 21 - 30
- Spurs: 17 - 29
- Trail Blazers: 16 - 27
Most teams fall right in the middle of this range, where they win as many close games as they lose, but there are some outliers that show interesting trends, like how the Pelicans were not clutch all year and lost most of their close games, or teams like the Magic, Warriors and Lakers had a high volume of these games which made them harder to come to a consensus if their win total really reflected the strength of the team.
This isn’t a great list for really gauging a team, especially because instances like hitting a pointless buzzer beater or playing the foul game can put teams in/out of the 3 point threshold, but it provides an interesting outline of a team’s potential for the worst or the best possible outcome within reason.
The idea, in theory, is that every 1-3 point loss is potentially winnable, and every 1-3 point win are also all losable.
This is actually mad interesting to see laid out like this