I get the Knicks are media darlings, which is what drove the “Brunson took a 113mil paycut to help the Knicks” spin, but even if you try to frame it as “37 mil in savings”, it seems to lack context and be very misleading.

Brunson just had an amazing season, but he’s a 1x All-Star and 1x All-NBA Second Team who is 28 years old, a 6’2 score-first guard who just finished his season injured.

Mitigating Risk:

Reality is that the NBA longevity isn’t super kind to undersized score-first guards. He just averaged 28.7 points, 6.7 assists with 48%/40%/85% shooting, which is super cool, but part of this is because he was carrying a large offensive load. Year prior, he had Randle (25ppg) and RJ (19.6ppg) eating into scoring. This year Randle was out half the year and OG averages less. Next year, with Randle back and Bridges (20ppg) joining the mix, it’s very possible Brunson sees a dip back to the low 20s.

The worst-case scenario for Brunson is the undersized Isaiah Thomas, who was the same age when he also had an explosive season averaging 28.9ppg leading his team to the ECF in 2017. Like Brunson, IT was chasing a bag, but unfortunately that bag never came.

Likewise, Kemba Walker who was the same age as Brunson/IT during his final season in Charlotte averaging an explosive 25.6ppg. He followed that up with a couple mediocre 20ppg seasons in Boston before washing out of the league.

Similarish situation with Rajon Rondo, who was the same age as Brunson, IT and Kemba when he was on the verge of a huge payday (rumors at the time were the Lakers were prepared to offer him a max contract to play alongside Kobe), but Rondo got traded into a new system and failed to reach the same level of output with new teammates.

I’m not suggesting Brunson finising his season injured is a sign of his career immediately falling off like IT/Kemba, or that the Knicks adding talent will see his production fall off a cliff, but it seems very possible he’ll see his numbers dip back into fringe-star territory while missing All-NBA teams and at his size and play style, injuries are always a possibility. The question he and his camp had to ask was whether they were willing to take that gamble, play out this next season, and then chase that bag… or if they wanted to lock in 4 years 156 mil max now. Seems to me, this was a no-brainer. Given he’s small and hasn’t yet proven to be a perennial all-star, he had to lock in that money now while it was still available to him.

Good long-term Financial play:

Brunson’s extension locks in 34.9 mil in 2025-26, 37.7 mil in 2026-27, 40.5 mil in 2027-28 and then allows him to become a free agent Summer 2028. Much is made of the fact that if he had waited a year, in theory he would have made 46.3 mil, 50.1 mil and 53.8 mil those 3 years, but of course that ignores the very real possibility Brunson doesn’t repeat this most recent season’s performance. Would a 5 year 270 mil offer be on the table for a guy averaging 22 and 5? Hard to say.

But on the flip side, let’s say superstar Brunson isn’t a fluke and this guy just continues to average near 30ppg and make all-NBA teams. In that case, it was a financially sound decision to lock in the big money early and then Summer 2027 he’ll be eligible to sign a 4 year 323M extension starting in 2028-29. This would actually be the first season Brunson would be 10 year eligible, so structuring this current extension so that he’s a free agent in 2028 (and can sign the extension in 2027) was probably the primary driver of getting this current deal locked in now.

Compare the two scenarios:

Scenario 1:

Brunson signs the max 156.5 mil extension now, then signs a 4 year 323M extension Summer 2027. His 5 year outlook:

• 34.9 mil in 2025-26
• 37.7 mil in 2026-27
• 40.5 mil in 2027-28
• 71.7 mil in 2028-29
• 77.4 mil in 2029-30
• TOTAL = 262 mil (with 2 more years after locked in at 83.6 in 2030 and 90.3 mil and 2031 when he’ll be 34-35 years old)

Scenario 2:

Brunson gambles on himself, waits a whole year of uncertainty, and then theoretically could have locked in a 5 year 269 mil extension if it was still available.

• 46.3 mil in 2025-26
• 50.1 mil in 2026-27
• 53.8 mil in 2027-28
• 57.5 mil in 2028-29
• 61.2 mil in 2029-30
• TOTAL = 269 mil

Scenario 3:

Brunson gambles on himself, waits a whole year of uncertainty, then goes the IT/Rondo route where injuries/disappointing performances results in nothing close to a max extension ever being presented. Rondo, who was thought to be receiving a max contract from the Lakers ended up getting exposed in Dallas and signing a 1 year 9.5 mil contract. His total lifetime earnings after the change in teammates was around 65 mil over the next 9 seasons. Thomas made a total of around 11 million dollars in contracts after his Brunson-esque 2017 season. I’m sure both wish they could have locked in big money extensions before shit hit the fan.

TL;DR: Brunson’s decision gives the Knicks some overstated short-term flexibility but more importantly locked him in to long-term no-brainer financial security.