There’s been a lot of talk recently about Tatum’s shooting slump and that being a major cause for his lack of PT during the Olympics. While I do believe some of that to be true, I don’t think his current 3 point shooting is a long term concern. I really feel like some of it has to do with fatigue.

If you look at his last few regular seasons, he shot the best he has in 3 years last season - almost 38% from 3 on 8 attempts a game. If you look at the playoffs, he was at 37% from 3 for his career until the past 2 post season runs, where he shot 32% in 2023 and then 28% in 2024.

Stats: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01.html However, I do think some of this has to do with fatigue and the way he has become more of a point forward in recent series. He shot 37% from 3 against Philadelphia in the 7 game series in 2023, and after that his shooting fell off a cliff. In his next playoff series, he has shot 23%, 29%, 27%, 30.6% and 26% (24 Finals). At the same time, his assists rose every series and I think it’s due to him playing a much more on-ball role than he previously had. He has always had the ball in his hands a lot, but he operated out of the wings and corners a bit more in the past. Last 2 seasons, he has operated from the top of the key way more. While I believe it has made him into a more effective floor general and playmaker, it has impacted where he takes his 3’s from, which I believe is causing the drop in efficiency.

In 2024, he shot 43% on catch and shoot 3’s. ( https://www.nba.com/stats/players/catch-shoot?SeasonType=Regular Season&dir=A&sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION ) This is on the same level of efficiency of great shooters like Sam Hauser, Kyrie, MPJ, etc and he’s shooting better than guys like Luka, Jamal Murray and Klay. So he is a very good catch and shoot guy. It’s his pull ups which have taken a major hit and if he can reel it in a bit and be more controlled with his shot selection, his percentages and efficiency will improve drastically.

In 2024, he shot only 5.9% of his 3’s from the corner, which is a career low. Compare this to early on in his career when he shot 28% of his 3’s from the corner. He’s a 41% career corner shooter and taking less 3’s from a spot where he is effective from definitely caused a drop in efficiency. Furthermore, over 50% of his 3’s are unassisted - AKA off the dribble 3’s. For comparison - Steph Curry, the best shooter ever, takes 39% unassisted 3’s. More of Steph Curry’s 3’s are assisted (percentage/shot selection wise) than unassisted. This context matters when looking into Tatum’s 3 point shooting and the recent slump.

I think what will help Tatum out a lot beyond just cutting out those ill advised 3’s and side-step pullups is him getting back to operating out of the midrange a little more. He used to have a short-mid range jumper that was much more effective, and I feel like him being coached to become a 3’s and drives guy has limited some of his offense. In situations where he can’t get to the rim and can’t shoot a 3, he seems to be a little lost. If he can add the 12-15 foot jumper to his game similar to SGA, Luka, Kawhi, KD, even his teammate Jaylen, etc, I think that will take his game up to the next level more than any other aspect of his game improving. If you’re not Giannis or Shaq, basically every major finals-MVP level player has had midrange in their game and history proves it too - Kobe, Duncan, LeBron, Steph, KD, Kawhi, Jokic, Jaylen - all guys who weren’t solely 3’s and drives and could score from the mid range. Even teams like the 2021 Bucks had Khris and Jrue who were both good mid range guys.

It will reap benefits in numerous ways because Tatum won’t feel like he has to force a 3 up when he can work through mid range more. SGA is one of the most effective players in both the regular season and playoffs and he doesn’t take a high volume of 3’s at all, and Tatum is definitely a better shooter from range, so there’s hope he can be just as effective of a scorer.